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Marnus under pressure to score runs | 01:43
Marnus Labuschagne’s numbers are looking bleak, and his head may be on the chopping block.
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The Australian number three’s future in the side has been a big talking point of the summer and the tour of Sri Lanka has only ramped up the scrutiny.
Labuschagne salvaged some personal pride from the series with an unbeaten 26 in Australia’s small fourth innings run chase of 75 in the second Test, after falling for 4 and 20 in his previous two hits as his teammates filled their boots.
The success of reinvigorated senior pair Steve Smith and Usman Khawaja as well as wicketkeeper batter Alex Carey was not what piled the pressure onto Labuschagne however, that was reserved for the emergence of a new crop of batting talent.
Josh Inglis slotted into the middle order with a century on debut, while Beau Webster played valuable hands after his eye-catching debut at the SCG last month.
Watching from the sidelines was the boy wonder Sam Konstas as Cameron Green continued his rehabilitation from back surgery in Perth.
Throw in Travis Head as a certain starter for the World Test Championship final against South Africa starting June 11, and the selectors are presented nine options for the top seven.
It is a problem good, if not great, teams have.
But it could be a nightmare for Labuschagne.
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“For the first time ever, it does look like his place could be under threat,” cricket journalist Bharat Sundaresan said on SEN during the second Test in Galle.
“When he got out yesterday, just the way he reviewed it and his body language as he looked up at the screen and the way he walked away, there was a sense of resignation as if to say ‘what more can I do?’
“Unfortunately for Marnus, yes his contribution’s were vital again during the Border-Gavaskar trophy, the two 70’s in Melbourne and the 64 in Adelaide, but this decline in his average which is in steep decline, it’s coincided with a lot of others vying for that spot, who are not playing shield cricket, who are within that dressing room who are performing.
“The squeeze is on. The squeeze is on and Cameron Green is coming back.”
The prodigious Green’s looming return is perhaps most threatening to Labuschagne.
It is no secret that Australia’s selectors love the tall West Australian.
It has been somewhat forgotten that this time 12 months ago Smith was opening the batting to accommodate the highly talented all-rounder batting at number four, where he has been prolific at Shield level.
Green held up his end of the bargain with a match-winning 174 not out in the first Test against New Zealand in Wellington, and if he can get back in time to face South Africa, the Australian hierarchy may want him at second drop again.
The question lingers of how to get him there.
Smith returned to his dominant ways this summer with four centuries in his last five Tests, all coming from number four.
But the stand-in skipper for the Sri Lanka tour also boasts a formidable record at number three with an average of 67.07 and eight Test centuries, so there is no denying he could continue his resurgence higher up the order.
If George Bailey and his fellow selectors choose to go down that path, they would simply need to point to Labuschagne’s numbers.
The Queensland captain has scored 935 runs at 28.33 in the current WTC cycle, with a sole century against England at Old Trafford in 2023.
Low scores undeniably hurt, but Labuschagne’s inability to convert starts in the past two years has contributed heavily to his struggles.
He has scored eight half centuries in this cycle as well as being dismissed five times between 20 and 49.
They are not the kind of numbers associated with a player renowned for his hunger to stay at the crease ever since he made his name with a half-century as a concussion substitute at Lords in the 2019 Ashes, just his sixth Test match.
In comparison, Labuschagne amassed 1576 runs at 52.53 in the previous WTC cycle and posted triple figures on half the occasions he reached fifty with five centuries and five half centuries.
He sat third on the run tally behind Khawaja and Joe Root.
This time around, he has scored less runs than teammates Khawaja (1422 runs at 41.82), Smith (1324 runs at 41.37), Travis Head (1177 runs at 35.66) and Carey (954 at 35.33).
He has also been outperformed by his fellow number threes around the globe.
Regular first drops like Kane Williamson (1152 at 54.85), Ollie Pope (1084 at 31.88), Shubman Gill (972 at 37.38) and Dinesh Chandimal (870 at 36.25) all possess superior averages than Labuschagne during the cycle.
Perhaps Labuschagne’s good fortune has caught up with him.
Back in 2022, ESPNCricinfo reported that no batter had been dropped by opposition fielders on more occasions than Labuschagne had since his Test debut.
Sixteen times chances of his bat were grassed, and former teammate David Warner shared after Labuschagne’s first innings of 64 at the Adelaide Oval against India in December that he plays too many loose shots.
“I’m still not convinced with Marnus,” Warner said.
“I don’t think that was anywhere near what we know he’s capable of.
“He might have got a couple out of the middle, got a couple of freebies, batted well that night to get through but they bowled poorly.
“So, from that perspective, he had the best conditions to come out and bat in.
“But he got out the same way he always does get out when he gets over 50, hits it straight to gully.
“So, there’s a lack of awareness there of what he’s got to be mindful of. I don’t think he’s anywhere near where he should be.”
But Labuschagne has the support of his great mate Smith.
The 35-year-old suggested that big scores were just around the corner for Labuschagne, just as they were for himself at the start of the Border Gavaskar Trophy.
“Marn’s similar to me in a way,” Smith said. “Throughout the summer I think he’s actually batting quite nicely and there’s a difference between being out of form and out of runs, and I’ve seen Marnus do it, we know he can do it.
“I don’t think he’s out of form personally. I’ve watched him train and watched him play and a lot of the things he’s done so well are there. Things can turn around pretty quickly. He’d love to score more runs and we’d love him to score more runs, but in my opinion it’s just around the corner.”
Meanwhile, Australian great Adam Gilchrist believes a surprise new role may be best to reignite Labuschagne.
Albeit it would likely mean teen sensation Konstas remaining on the outer.
“I think natural progression or movement would be Travis Head goes back into his No.5 spot, so that’s going to open up the opening position. It’s really hard to know because this selection panel and the leadership … they’ve thrown all traditional selection policy out the window and they’re creating their own environment and policy on how they want to play out every single Test match,” Gilchrist said.
“They’re flush with choices particularly if Green comes back fit to bat.
“It’ll boil down to the conditions over there and who they think is going to do the best job for those five days.
“… It wouldn’t surprise me (if Marnus) may well be in the calculations if they’ve got to replace an opener with Travis going back to 5.
“They might even say, ‘right Marnus, you go up there,’ if they want to retain him in the team.
“They obviously put a lot of value on him being in the team and he played a couple of really reliable knocks in the summer (against India) without being back up to the lofty standards he set over the last few years.
“I think they put a high importance on Marnus’ presence in the team so he could be one of a number of options they look at at the top of the order.”
Early in his career, Labuschagne’s numbers stood among Australia’s greatest.
His Test average peaked at 63.43 just 14 Tests into his career after posting his highest Test score, 215, against New Zealand at the SCG in January 2020.
Almost three years later, following a first innings 163 against the West Indies at the Adelaide Oval in December 2022, Labuschagne’s average was still north of 60.
It has been on a steady decline since, with his average currently standing at 46.76, the lowest it has been since 2019 when he had played just ten of his 57 Tests.
The continual fall can largely be credited with his last ten Test innings yielding 277 runs at 30.77.
Those numbers are nowhere near as dire as Mitch Marsh’s were before he was dropped for the Sydney Test – Marsh scored 153 runs at 15.3 – but they are not too dissimilar to other Australian batters to receive the axe in the last five years.
For reference, Marcus Harris scored 231 runs at 25.66 in his last ten Test innings, while Matthew Wade made 225 runs at 25 and Joe Burns compiled 218 runs at 24.22.
That trio were all squeezed out for players who flourished.
Harris for Khawaja during the 2021/22 Ashes, Wade for Head after the Border Gavaskar Trophy loss the previous summer and Burns for Warner midway through that series.
Labuschagne may experience the same fate because of Green.
Of course, Inglis or Webster could miss out instead and Green return to number six where he has batted for most of his Test career.
Dropping a 30-year-old who is meant to be in his prime in an ageing team is not what the Australian selectors would have hoped for as a transition period looms.
But the numbers are bleak, and they have not been afraid to make changes for crunch games such as Konstas debuting on Boxing Day, Webster debuting in Sydney and Carey being dropped for Inglis during the 2023 ODI World Cup.
History may repeat itself at Lords, and it will be a fascinating watch as to whether or not the deteriorating numbers bring down Labuschagne.
